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Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cheap Ray Ban Sunglasses Online . -- The Green Bay Packers have signed quarterback Graham Harrell to the active roster from the practice squad and placed tight end Andrew Quarless on injured reserve. Cheap Ray Ban Sunglasses For Sale . Kalish got his first hit since Sept. 11, 2012, when he rapped an RBI triple in the first inning Sunday in the Chicago Cubs 8-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. http://www.cheaprayban.net/ . As the Winnipeg Blue Bombers opened their main training camp Sunday, Kuale is one of the newcomers brought in to bolster a sagging defence that ranked overall where the Bombers finished 2013, in the CFL cellar with a league high 585 points against. Cheap Authentic Ray Ban Sunglasses .Before a raucous sellout crowd, the Hawks won for the 29th time in 31 games to extend their Eastern-best record to 36-8.As usual, pretty much everyone chipped in.Four starters were in double figures and backup point guard Dennis Schroder led a spurt at the start of the fourth quarter that helped the Hawks pull away. Cheap Ray Ban Sunglasses Wholesale . -- Miami Dolphins defensive co-ordinator Kevin Coyle defended the management style of coach Joe Philbin in the wake of the teams bullying scandal.Aaron Ekblad may be the most mature 18-year-old hockey player on the planet. "Not only does he have a 30-year-olds physique under his equipment but he also thinks and acts like a 10-year NHL vet," said Dan Stewart, scouting director for the independent scouting service Future Considerations. Ekblad, a two-way, right-shooting defenceman, knows what he wants to be not only in this weeks NHL draft but as a professional. Hed love to go No. 1 and continue to mould himself in the images of Shea Weber, Alex Pietrangelo and Duncan Keith. More than anything, though, the Barrie Colts captain wants to be considered reliable on and off the ice. "I dont do too many things that are going to surprise anyone," Ekblad said at last months scouting combine. "Im going to be the kind of player that you know what youre going to get from me." Steady and dependable doesnt put butts in seats, but Ekblad isnt touting himself as a flashy kind of player. Instead, and more importantly, he has the potential to develop into a franchise cornerstone. Because of that, the Belle River, Ont., native is the front-runner to be the top pick Friday night in Philadelphia, whether the Florida Panthers choose to keep it or trade it. Buffalo Sabres general manager Tim Murray said last week he expected Ekblad to go No. 1 regardless. If that happens, Ekblad would be the first defenceman to be selected with the top pick since Erik Johnson in 2006, and the first Canadian-born blue-liner in that spot since Chris Phillips in 1996. Ekblad knows it has been a "long time" since a defenceman was drafted first. But it would come as no shock to NHL Central Scouting director Dan Marr. "Aaron Ekblad is a hard player to go past in the draft, I think, for any of the teams, and they know that," Marr said at the combine. "There doesnt seem to be a will to take a defenceman high because a lot of times you dont get the quick bang for your buck." Ekblad wants to provide that, just as 2013 No. 4 pick Seth Jones did for the Nashville Predators. "A hundred per cent" he wants to be in the NHL next season, and he told that to all 16 teams that interviewed him. "Thats the way I believe in myself," Ekblad said. "I wouldnt say Im cocky, but Im confident and I believe that if I work hard and I do all the little things and pay attention to details, I can be in that league next year." With that confidence in mind, Ekblad still watched games this past season and recognized the NHL is a hard league to crack and that getting drafted is just a foot in the door. "It means nothing until you prove that youre ready to do it," he said. Scouts believe Ekblad is prepared to prove it. In the six-foot-three, 213-pound prospect, Ross MacLean of ISS Hockey, another independent scouting service, sees someone with skills to insulate himself from making mistakes and the maturity to be able to adjust to the next level. "Hes a kid that I think probably couldve played in the NHL this year, let alone next year," MacLean said. "I think we saw that with Seth Jones, as well, last year. Theyve just been put into positions wheere theyve been able to acclimatize and get comfortable and confident and develop their skills at the appropriate pace, and theyre ready for the next step.dddddddddddd." Typically, theres a learning curve for even the best young defencemen before they can become NHL regulars, let alone stars. But a handful from the top 10 of the 2012 draft, including the Toronto Maple Leafs Morgan Rielly, Anaheim Ducks Hampus Lindholm and Columbus Blue Jackets Ryan Murray, played the full 2013-14 season and showed it may not be as steep as it once was. During the season, then-Predators and now Washington Capitals coach Barry Trotz theorized that its because junior hockey has more pro systems designed to help defencemen adapt quicker. Stewart thinks Ekblad can adjust on the fly because of his awareness. After being given the captaincy in Barrie, Ekblad "was trying to do everything," Stewart said, before recognizing his weaknesses and dialling back to what hes good at. "He has shown time and time again that he learns from mistakes," Stewart said. "Ekblad is always thinking and while he does make some mistakes from time to time, he also shows an ability to compensate for any situational deficiencies. Because of his slower feet, while defending speedy forwards attacking the zone, he gives himself a little larger gap than say if he were going up against someone he feels he can easily wedge off the puck. "Its his advanced thinking on the fly and understanding of his position that should benefit him quickly at the next level." Physically, Ekblad is undoubtedly NHL-ready. After earning exceptional status to play in the OHL at the age of 15, he has gone through three junior seasons in Barrie and held his own at the world junior championship. Stewart was impressed with how Ekblad handled pressure situations and defensive responsibilities while playing for Canada at the world juniors. In Barrie, Colts teammate, roommate and best friend Brendan Lemieux — a projected first- or second-round pick in his own right and the son of former NHL agitator Claude Lemieux — saw Ekblad show even more. "Ek really showed that he was willing to stand up and answer the bell, even with his gloves off. I watched him pound a few guys this year," Lemieux said at the combine. "He might not show that physical presence and how big he is and how tough he can be, but hes a tough guy, too. Hes not just a super-skilled big guy, hes a super-skilled big, tough guy." Ekblad is certainly better known for his 23 goals and 30 assists than his three fights, and it was that offence balanced with defensive acumen that earned him OHL defenceman of the year honours. Its hard to be upset about that kind of season, but Ekblad insisted hes not satisfied with what he showed scouts. "Thats kind of the way everyone here should be thinking: I believe I can always be better," he said. "You look back on some games, some shifts and (think), What if you did this instead of that? I wouldnt say I have any regrets, per se. I think I had a pretty good year. But theres always things you couldve done." --- Follow @SWhyno on Twitter ' ' '