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The strangest thing about Bud Seligs decision to determine home-field advantage in the World Series on the outcome of the All-Star Game was how backward the connection was. Nike Vapormax In Offerta . The World Series comprises the seven most important games of the baseball season. The All-Star Game, judging by how its rosters are constructed and its play managed, is the least important. Short of granting home field to the winner of spring training split-squad games, or a pregame cow-milking contest, itd be hard to envision a sillier example of a tail wagging the dog.Before Seligs decision, it was determined by random chance -- more recently, an even/odd year alternation, and before that, a literal coin flip. Given the opportunity to overrule this, Selig chose an almost identical philosophy -- that home field is a mostly meaningless advantage that need not be earned, only inherited. The only explanation? That home-field advantage in the World Series doesnt actually matter.Thats the most generous justification of Seligs scheme, which will be unwound by baseballs new collective bargaining agreement. Its actually a rational position, with a sound foundation and some historical evidence backing it. A smart person could justifiably believe this position.Its also wrong, in a way that has arbitrarily tilted October baseball for almost a century and that might more systematically tilt October baseball for (at least) the next five years.Its important to briefly lay the foundation for the Home Field Advantage Doesnt Really Matter position: The advantage does not, logically, matter unless the series goes seven games. If a home team wins in fewer than seven, it didnt need its advantage -- it won without its advantage. And most series dont go to seven games. Since 1925, when the current 2-3-2 format became permanent, 62 percent were over before the final if necessary game could be made necessary.That still leaves 38 percent that did, 35 Game 7s, and home-field advantage was certainly desirable in those. But home-field advantage in baseball is a relatively weak force, promising the home team only about a 54-46 edge. Generously, we might bump that to 55-45, to reflect a slightly higher historical edge in the high-stakes World Series games. Applying that small edge to all the seventh games since 1925, wed expect one or two series outcomes to flip ... in nearly a century. For Selig, thats one unjust outcome every 53 years, a pretty small price to pay for your pet project (or better television ratings). The fact that seventh games have, in fact, gone 18-17 in favor of the visitors confirms that baseballs decision not to seriously grapple with the right way to determine home-field advantage has left few victims.So this is the logical/historical argument: The advantage rarely matters -- and when it does, it barely makes a difference. But this argument gets it super wrong.The key to understanding the true advantage comes not in Game 7, when the fourth and advantage-deciding home game takes place, but in the first. Home-field advantage seems to be less about getting a fourth game at home and more about getting the 2s in the 2-3-2.Remember that home-field advantage overall is only about 54 percent to 46 percent? If we break the World Series down by game, the results have been radically different. Since 1925:? Game 1: 57-34 ? Game 2: 55-36 ? Game 3: 50-41 ? Game 4: 44-47 ? Game 5: 37-36 ? Game 6: 35-19 ? Game 7: 17-18Or, if we group them by legs of the trip:? Games 1-2: .615 home winning percentage ? Games 3-5: .514 home winning percentage ? Games 6-7: .584 home winning percentageWell, sure, the brain wants to say, the team that starts at home must be better. But throughout these 92 years (91 series), home field has been determined either randomly or by a factor (All-Star Game victor) that has virtually nothing to do with the teams involved. There is no reason to think that the teams that had home field in Game 1 were better, and yet they have been, as a group, a postseason powerhouse. Teams that have started at home were twice as likely to sweep the World Series (12 times to six times) and nearly twice as likely to win the series in five games (12 times to seven times) -- even though these victors ended up with the home field disadvantage, playing three games at road and only two at home. In fact, after five games, the team that has played fewer games at home has clinched or led the series 49 times to 42.Which gets us here: The team that starts at home has won 59 percent of the World Series since 1925. If we have identified a real effect, this advantage is far greater than any typical understanding of home field. And weve found a more or less randomly determined variable that has swung almost nine World Series in one direction.If we have identified a real effect.This is the hard part. Statistical flukes happen! But lets try to find a good reason to accept this as truth, recognizing that each of these hypotheses could justify a separate study on its own:1. Game 1 is just differentInevitably, the announcers at next years World Series will mention how nervous everybody is. Theyll say that nothing can prepare you for the feeling of being in the World Series, and that itll take a few innings before the butterflies settle down. Perhaps this is even true! If it is, it would be reasonable to hypothesize that baseball players would prefer to be nervous among friends, in a home park, than nervous among enemies. Perhaps this amplifies the difference between home and road. Perhaps this explains why the advantage in Game 1 is bigger than the advantage in Game 3 (or in Game 7), when the players have become accustomed to the brighter lights of the World Series and it has gone back to being just baseball.2. Momentum, or something like itIf a team loses one game, it has been about 53 percent likely to lose the next -- not a particularly big difference, especially because the team that lost is most likely a little bit worse (which is why they lost).Overall, the World Series spread is right in line with the normal home/road gap: If a team lost a game and then got to play the next one at home -- either returning home (as from Game 2 to Game 3) or staying home (as from Game 1 to 2, Game 3 to 4, etc.) -- it won about 50 percent of its games. If a team lost a game and then had to play a game on the road, it won only 43 percent of its games. But one important exception: Home teams that lose Game 1 have come back to win 22 of 34 Games 2s.3. The advantage has a powerful subconscious, or barely conscious, effect all by itself Perhaps, knowing that theyre the underdogs, teams who start on the road enter the series with a sense of frustration, resignation, self-pity. Were getting extremely speculative now. But consider this quote from pitcher Chris Carpenter, talking about the 2013 World Series that his Cardinals played against the Red Sox:I think its very important to grab that home field. Last year we saw it play out in Boston. They had the opportunity to play more games there than we did in St. Louis.That quote came after the Series was over. The Series went six games. The Red Sox and Cardinals played exactly as many home games as each other, three apiece. And yet, We saw it play out. Carpenter describes it as though the Red Soxs numerical advantage manifested anyway, as though it were a factor well before Game 7. For some reason or another, it has been.In 2003, Bud Selig had a chance to fix the way home-field advantage is determined, and he tried to fix the All-Star Game instead. For the latter, he failed; the All-Star Game is played with no more competitive imperative now, and ratings have continued to sink. In the four years before Selig changed the rules, the All-Star Game drew 59 percent as many viewers as the first game of the same seasons World Series. In the four years after, that share dropped to 52 percent. In the past four years, its down to 43 percent. Nothing got fixed.Its wise and obvious that baseball would undo the change, and wiser and more obvious that theyd also find a less arbitrary way of awarding home-field advantage, an important thing. Its not necessarily clear that awarding it to the team with the best record is any more just, though; the difference between the leagues remains staggering, as the National League had a worse winning percentage in interleague play this year (.450) than the Angels had overall. It might actually be more just to award home field to whichever league has the best interleague record, though that would be a lot less convincing in years where the difference between leagues is slim.Whether it is or isnt perfect is maybe less important than that it makes sense. Bud Selig surely knew when he made his decision that he wasnt actually going to change the way that the All-Star Game was played; he was going to change the way the All-Star Game was watched. Whether or not the best record truly deserves home-field advantage, it at least makes sense. It gives the audience something it can believe in. Its the fan-friendly solution to the dilemma that Selig skipped over. Vapormax Flyknit Saldi . Takahashi, who had a 10-point lead after the short program, received 268.31 points after the free skate to finish 15 points ahead of second-place Nobunari Oda. Vapormax Nere Scontate . Both players have lower body injuries that will keep them out of the lineup until at least January 31, which is the first game they can be activated from IR. http://www.vapormaxscontateoutlet.it/ . -- Its been a long road back for Sean Bergenheim. SUNRISE, Fla. -- The Florida Panthers spoiled Jaroslav Halaks solid night in a hurry.Jonathan Marchessault tied the game with 13.6 seconds left in regulation and Denis Malgin scored late in overtime, helping the Panthers beat the New York Islanders 3-2 on Saturday.Florida trailed 2-0 in the third period before getting goals from Kyle Rau and Marchessault.Marchessault tied it when Halak blocked a shot but let the puck trickle through his pads and in.Malgin, a rookie, poked in a rebound with 45.8 seconds left in overtime.It was great to see the kid score an overtime, Panthers coach Gerard Gallant said. A 19-year-old kid doing that was big for our club.The late goals ruined a stellar effort by Halak, who had 40 saves.It cant happen with 13 seconds left in the game and the hockey game on the line. Halak said. These two points we lost tonight are my responsibility. I have to stop that shot.Brock Nelson and Nick Leddy scored for New York. The Islanders are 0-4-1 on the road and have lost five of their past six, and three in overtime.Its like a bad dream right now. Were playing good hockey and the guys cant catch a break, Islanders coach Jack Capuano said. A tough one at the end.Roberto Luongo made 17 saves to win his second straight start after losing the previous four. James Reimer entered with 50.4 seconds left in regulation and made one save, but Luongo re-entered after it was tied and played in overtime.Luongo got involved in a rare fight when he threw punches with Nelson behind the net during a chippy second period.I kind of lost it a little bit there, Luongo said. I let off a little steam. It was a tough game for everybody with the way things were going; the bounces and the calls and all that kind of stuff but good teams stick with it and overcome adversity.Rau got his first career goal. He shot from low in the left circle then grabbeed his own rebound and poked the puck behind Halak at 8:56 of the third. Air Vapormax Outlet. The Islanders went ahead 2-0 on a power-play goal by Leddy. Luongo initially blocked Leddys shot, but the puck bounced off Nelson in the crease, over Luongo and went off his blocker and back into the net at 9:54 of the second. The Panthers claimed that Nelson interfered, but the goal withstood a lengthy review. The power-play goal was just the fifth for the Islanders this season.The Panthers had a potential goal reversed at 5:07 of the second. Aaron Ekblads shot from the point went into the net just as Jaromir Jagr bumped Halak in the crease. The goal was initially disallowed, but that was overturned after an officials review. The Islanders issued a coachs challenge and the officials reverted to the initial call of no goal.Nelson gave the Islanders a 1-0 lead with 22 seconds left in the first period. The puck caromed out to Nelson low in the right circle while Luongo was prone in the crease after blocking a shot, and Nelson swept the puck into the open net.This was the first meeting between the teams since last Aprils first-round playoff series, won by the Islanders in six games.Game notes The Panthers claimed forward Seth Griffith off waivers from the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. Griffith is expected to join the team when they visit Montreal on Tuesday. ... Panthers rookie forward Shane Harper cleared waivers and was sent to AHL Springfield. ... Panthers winger Reilly Smith played his 300th NHL game. ... John Tavares, who had an assist on Leddys goal, leads the Islanders with five goals and 12 points.UP NEXT:Islanders: Host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday night.Panthers: Visit the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday night. ' ' '